An uncertainty-based framework for technology portfolio selection for future aircraft program

Abstract

© 2021, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc, AIAA. All rights reserved.One critical step of conceptual design of future aircraft is the selection of technologies to be integrated in the system. This paper presents a framework under development to support the selection and prioritization of technologies in the presence of uncertainty for future Aerospace & Defense programs. The work is a product of a collaboration between Saab Aeronautics, Embraer, and Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica. This article expands the capabilities from previous publications by introducing Uncertainty Quantification to a problem involving a larger number of technologies and multiple Measures of Performance. Strategies to handle the upsized problem are investigated and visual analytics is explored to communicate results in an intuitive and understandable fashion. A de-coupled strategy is proposed to enable pursuing Effectiveness-Based Design by translating Measures of Effectiveness into Measures of Performance to guide the selection and prioritization of technology clusters.