Uncertainty modeling and risk assessment in aircraft emergency evacuation simulation
Author
Rodrigo Pereira Giarola e Silva
Advisor
- Advisor Denise Beatriz Teixeira Pinto do Areal Ferrari
Concentration Area
Produção
Defense Date
08/07/2016
Thesis Number
71837
Abstract
Passenger-carrying aircraft should guarantee compliance with several safety requirements before they are allow to operate. These are usually put to test in full-evacuation trials, that not necessarily faithfully represent real emergency situations, in which high levels of uncertainty are present. This thesis proposes an agent-based simulation model that takes into consideration and evaluates the impact of uncertainty regarding (i) the emergency exit availability; (ii) the physical characteristics of passengers; (iii) the decision making process in exit selection. The simulation results show that exit availability has an important effect on total evacuation time and non-optimal decision making influences the evacuation dynamic inside the aircraft. Finally, different forms to display information from simulations results were sought in order to suit determined levels of practical significance required by different types of professionals.
