LONG TOUCHDOWN THROUGH A SAFETY-II PERSPECTIVE

Resumo

© 2022 ICAS. All Rights Reserved.Safety-II assumes that individuals and organizations habitually adjust their performance to match current demands, resources, and constraints to compensate the incompleteness of procedures and instructions. It suggests that everything happens basically in the same way, regardless of the outcome. This work aims to analyze the aircraft touchdown procedure through this perspective, focusing on the everyday performance and the consequent variability. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method or FRAM provides a way to explain outcomes using the idea of resonance - an activity is described through a pool of functions and the outcomes arise from their day-by-day variability. To characterize the functions' variability, Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) techniques are here used. To examine specific instantiations of the model and understand how the potential variability of each function can become resonant, the application of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is proposed. To apply the MCS, a linear regression is performed in order to capture the relationship between the functions' outputs and their inputs. This method is applied to the touchdown of 288 flights. The outcome is a model to assess the risk of a long touchdown of the current sample, including the organizational, human, and technological aspects of the complex aeronautical system. Note that long touchdown is a runway overrun precursor.

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